US politics and policy: to the midterms and beyond
Video password: 2208midterms
During this webinar, our experts will discuss the mixed economic context within which President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party will campaign to protect its narrow majorities in the upcoming November midterm elections. Where are the elections are likely to be won and lost? What new majorities in the House and Senate could mean for policymaking and economic management in 2023?
The US economy entered a recession in the second quarter of 2022 and inflation rose above 9% in the middle of the year. However, the labour market has stayed firm, with wages rising and the unemployment rate close to a 50-year low. This provides a mixed economic context for campaigning ahead of the November midterm elections, in which President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party faces an uphill battle to protect its narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. The governing party tends to lose ground in midterm elections; Biden’s difficulties in passing legislation since coming to office, partly because of intra-party divisions, plus rampant inflation do not augur well for his chances of beating the trend.
In this webinar, brought to you by Oxford Analytica and FrontierView, we will examine recent economic trends and short-term forecasts for inflation, employment and wages as the context in which the election is likely to take place. We will identify some of the regional and sectoral outliers that could have a bearing on the election. From there we will consider polling trends and other data to identify where the elections are likely to be won and lost. Finally, we will consider what new majorities in the House and Senate could mean for policymaking and economic management in 2023.